Monday, March 17, 2008
“Significant decreases [in crop yields] are expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia and thus affect stability in a vitally strategic region for Europe,” predicts the report, while “water supply in Israel might fall by 60 percent over this century.”The document also warns of major changes to landmass leading to territorial disputes, political radicalization in poorer regions of the world, and the effects that sea-level rises and increases in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters would have on port cities and oil refineries.
The seven-page paper, to be submitted to EU leaders at a summit in Brussels later this week, warns of a range of stark scenarios, in particular the threat of an intensified “scramble for resources”—both energy and mineral—in the Arctic “as previously inaccessible regions open up.”
For the most part, however, much of the climate-change-based security risks mentioned in the report have been listed elsewhere. What is new is the proposal of the incorporation of risks resulting from climate change into European defense policy thinking.
Historically, certain nations in Europe, Germany in particular, have invented a crisis to provide an excuse for taking controversial action. Global warming may be just such a “crisis.”